An Off-Season Offering: Potential Low-Cost Trade Targets
(Staff Photo By Christopher Evans/Boston Herald)
The season has sadly come to an end for the Boston Celtics, and with their departure from the bubble, the team will usher in an offseason with a good deal of questions to be asked. However, all is not lost; this team vastly outperformed their expectations from last season, and that should be celebrated. There were several examples of play from the Celtics youth movement to be excited for.
For one, Jayson Tatum has firmly planted his flag in the star category, and with further development in the offseason, he may very well take a quantum leap into superstardom by the time next playoffs roll around. Jaylen Brown also continued to flash and grow into his own, clearly showing he deserved the contract extension he inked at the beginning of the season. Boston seriously hit big on Grant Williams, who shot an efficient 10/17 from deep in the playoffs (58.8%!!) and ranked 2nd in plus/minus among rookies during the regular season (+131). When we finally saw Robert Williams get some minutes at full strength, he showed further development and flashes of his athletic potential.
Boston fans have reason to be optimistic about the outcome of this season, but team management will have some issues to ponder, such as contract situations and the best path for the team to improve. As such, I will be writing a series of articles to discuss the offseason, and what moves or issues Boston will have to tackle in order to regroup, retool, and improve their roster.
Let’s get started on the biggest issue Boston had: complimentary playmaking and scoring. For sake of recency, Boston was 4th among all playoff teams in 3s made, and 2nd in attempts (only Miami was ahead of them).
However, when you look at their efficiency, they ranked 13th out of 16 in 3P% among playoff teams. Of their three playoff opponents, Toronto (7th) and Miami (11th) ranked ahead of them, with Philly ranked dead last with a percentage of 26.4% from deep. Some other stats from the playoffs:
Boston excelled in the postseason at drawing fouls and making their free throws, sitting 3rd in both makes and attempts; the only teams ahead of them are the Conference Champions - Lakers and Heat.
Boston was 2nd only to the Lakers in team plus-minus, 4th in assists and 4th in steals.
Boston did struggle with turnovers, averaging 14.2 turnovers per 100 possessions and finishing 3rd in total turnovers across all playoff teams.
For comparison, the remaining teams in the Conference Finals (Nuggets, Lakers, Heat) all finished in the top four in total turnovers; all four teams finished top four in steals and blocks as well.
The biggest takeaway from these stat lines is this: Boston takes a high volume of threes based on the system, but to be a successful team, those shots need to be falling. This becomes more apparent when you look at individual performance.
The core five of Jayson Tatum, Kemba Walker, Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown, and Gordon Hayward took up the lion’s share of 3 point attempts in the playoffs; in Hayward’s defense, I will exclude him as he only played three games (29.2% on just 24 attempts, for those wondering).
As for the remaining 4 players, each of them averaged over 7 attempts a game in the postseason; Tatum led in per game percentage with 37.3%, and Kemba with the lowest of 31% from three. The only Celtics to average over 35% from deep per game were Tatum and Brown (35.8% from deep).
The one red flag amongst all of this is almost all of the team’s 3 point shooting came from Brown, Tatum, Smart and Walker; if half of that group is shooting under league average at that volume, you’re in trouble.
The Celtics are too reliant on their starting lineup to produce points, and as Danny Ainge willingly admitted, the injuries to the team revealed the gaps in Boston’s armor. As soon as teams began to bother Kemba Walker and Jayson Tatum, the offense began to sputter; this especially was the case vs. Miami, with Tatum having significant trouble getting started offensively in multiple games.
The truth is simple: Boston needs to add some pure shooting around Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, and preferably some that comes with size. I will be steering clear of the topic of moving Marcus Smart and/or Hayward to Indiana in for Victor Oladipo/Myles Turner (at least for now). I will, however, take a closer look at some more affordable options, including another player from the Pacers.
A player I would look to target with Boston’s remaining assets is current Pacer forward Doug McDermott. Drafted 11th overall in 2014 by Chicago, Dougie McBuckets was a 4 year college athlete and with 6 years in the league, he’s become a seasoned veteran at age 28. He has one more year on his contract with a $7.33 million cap hit in 2020 before he hits Unrestricted Free Agency in 2021. By acquiring him now, Boston would gain his Bird Rights and be able to go over the cap and into the luxury tax to retain him, something that team ownership has been willing to do in order to field a contender.
McDermott was 2nd in both 3PM and 3PA for the Pacers, and led his team in 3P% at a clip of 43.5%. That would be the 5th in attempts and makes in Boston, and by far the best 3P% on the roster. While $7.3 million for an expiring contract for a team in Boston’s position is not ideal, it is by far affordable for that kind of efficiency and considering the amount of money the team has tied up in players who don’t contribute.
If Enes Kanter opts in, his contract with another player like Vincent Poirier would work financially in a Doug McDermott deal; add in one of Boston’s first rounders, and you may be able to entice the Pacers. Indiana is currently preparing for a whirlwind offseason with rumors of Victor Oladipo and potentially Myles Turner wanting out, so they could use picks to build around Domantas Sabonis, T.J. Warren and Malcolm Brogdon.
Another player that could be available for the right price that brings some firepower would be Detroit Pistons guard Luke Kennard. Standing at 6’5”, Kennard is on the younger side at age 24, and he was drafted 12th overall in 2017. Kennard shot 39.9% from deep on 183 attempts over the course of 28 games; Kennard missed a good amount of time during the stunted season due to knee tendinitis. While that may raise some eyebrows, Kennard is still quite young, and this could be an issue resolved by adjusting his workout regimen.
Understandably, based on Boston’s run-ins with injuries, a player with health concerns of any kind may cause some hesitation from the front office. Kennard’s contract will bring a cap hit of $5.27 Million, and a Qualifying Offer of $7.25 Million in 2021-22. If Detroit is concerned about his long-term status with the team (whether due to injury or his future contract), they could be open to moving him for the right price as they look to rebuild.
If Detroit is favoring Boston’s 14th overall pick, simply sending out salary to match in the form of Vincent Poirier and Carsen Edwards would work financially. However, if the Pistons prefer to add a young piece instead, a combination of Romeo Langford and one of Boston’s first round picks could get a deal done.
Drafted last season at 14th overall, Langford’s rookie season was hampered by injuries and led to his departure from the bubble during the playoffs. Boston GM Danny Ainge voiced positive thoughts on Langford’s development, which may indicate a reluctance to give up on him so early on; Boston may be more likely to choose moving picks instead of the young lottery talent.
In terms of build and skillset, Nemanja Bjelica might be one of the most interesting potential targets that Boston could pursue. The 6’10” Serbian big man has over 12 years of professional playing experience across his career, including the last 5 years in the NBA with the Timberwolves and Kings. His presence on a roster would offer not only experience, but a seriously dangerous shooter with a size mismatch.
On a team with Buddy Hield and Bogdan Bogdanovic, Bjelica was 134 of 320 from behind the arc, with only Buddy and Bogdan ahead of him in attempts and makes. However, he is by far the most efficient at that volume, shooting an eye-popping 41.9% from 3. Shooting at that rate with that kind of height is impressive, and if utilized in the right system, it could be outright chaos for opposing teams to have to deal with defensively.
Barring any changes in his current status with the Kings, Nemanja Bjelica might actually be the easiest to acquire of the players mentioned due to his contract situation. He has a similar cap hit to Doug McDermott at $7.1 Million hit for the final year of his deal, but it’s non-guaranteed. Based on the issues Sacramento is trying to deal with concerning Buddy Hield, there could be some trades brewing on the horizon for the Kings as they look to build their roster under the supervision of new GM Monte McNair.
If Sacramento wanted, they could use Bjelica as trade filler so a team could either keep or waive him after a trade. There’s also a chance Sacramento waives his deal and Bjelica would be able to pursue a deal of his choosing in free agency, despite there being a great deal of uncertainty as to what the NBA Salary Cap will look like in a post-COVID world. For that same reason, you will probably see Enes Kanter and Gordon Hayward opt into their deals.
Ultimately, there are definitely spots on the roster where the team can improve outside of the Jays, and Danny Ainge must be ready to make the moves to build around the two and maximize the window they have with Kemba Walker. Difficult decisions loom for Boston as they will seek to sign Jayson Tatum to a max extension while also considering the contract situations of Gordon Hayward and Marcus Smart.
I will say this: regardless of how the season ended, most of these questions will still need to be answered, Finals or no Finals. Outside of the foregone conclusion of Tatum’s contract extension talks, Hayward was always going to be a topic with his player option deadline approaching quickly. Marcus Smart, the longest tenured Celtic under Brad Stevens, is entering the last year of his deal and could be looking for a lot more money that could price him out of town. These are all factors that Boston’s front office must consider as they navigate an offseason full of financial uncertainty.
For a good read and useful tool to look at contract values across the league, please peruse this article from FiveThirtyEight.
Player Plots generated here (Site created by Arjun Balaraman (@arjun_balaraman))
Information gathered from Stats.NBA, Spotrac, FiveThirtyEight, Yahoo
Trades generated in https://basketball.realgm.com/tradechecker
