An Offseason Offering: The Gordon Hayward Situation
After the NBA and NBPA came to an agreement recently, December 22nd was announced as the start of the 2020-21 season, with a November 18th Draft preceding the start of free agency on November 20th. With a finalized return date and a rapidly approaching draft, the NBA has jumped to warp speed as it blazes through a shortened offseason. Beyond this truncated layoff, the league also announced the salary cap and luxury tax would stay the same as last season ($109.1 Million and $132.6 Million, respectively) in addition to the same 10% escrow from player salary. However, if BRI (Basketball-Related Income) projections aren’t reached by the league, this escrow could jump up to 20%.
Escrow is money withheld from player salary to cover the league in case they don’t reach their revenue goal. This is standard practice for the league and if needed, revenue loss due to COVID will be spread out over multiple seasons with small increases in player escrow. This is the best outcome, as the escrow stays the same this season and the league has a better chance to recoup money with an earlier start date.
This information was crucial in reference to the topic of my next offseason offering: Gordon Hayward. I had been waiting to speculate on what the situation concerning Hayward would look like, as there were still some league announcements that impact free agency in addition to salary cap implications. Over this weekend, expect all sorts of chaos and rumors as the draft approaches.
To summarize the Hayward situation, we need to look back as far as last summer, when he purchased a $3 Million dollar house in Indiana. When asked by the Indianapolis Star, he refused to comment on his purchase. Fast forward to October, and Ian Begley of SportsNet New York stated that some Front Office members within the Pacers desired to trade for Gordon Hayward. The rumor originally generated in June from the Indy Star, and things seems to have only picked up from there.
Hayward, who turns 31 in March, has a player option worth about $34.2 Million. Previously, the option deadline was in October, but due to the uncertainty of the salary cap and other important league deadlines, it was tabled. Now, with the draft in less than a week followed shortly by free agency, we will start to hear news trickle out about players opting in or out of these deals. For example, Mike Conley of the Utah Jazz just made the decision to not exercise his early termination on his contract.
Boston is faced with an unenviable situation where they either let Hayward walk for nothing or try to get him to agree to opt in and be moved to a mutually-agreeable destination, which is an extremely tall order. An opt out followed by a sign-and-trade is possible, but it would hardcap the Celtics as it did last year when they acquired Kemba Walker, so that isn’t a favorable outcome either.
Before I delve any further, I need to say this: I like Gordon Hayward and his fit with the Celtics. I think he’s arguably the best offensive decision-maker on the team and adds so much on both sides of the floor. My glaring concerns with him have nothing to do with his play, but with his health and his contract situation.
After Al Horford and Kyrie Irving, I don’t believe the Celtics organization likes to take any chances with big-name players walking in free agency, and this most definitely applies with Hayward. A cap hit of $34.2 Million is a hefty chunk of money, and unless that number is renegotiated in a contract extension, Boston will have little flexibility this offseason. Add this to the max contract extension the team is lining up for Jayson Tatum, and suddenly there isn’t a lot of money to go around next summer without going heavily into the luxury tax. Even if Hayward leaves this offseason, you’re gaining almost nothing in terms of financial flexibility due to Jaylen Brown’s extension kicking in for 2020-21. At best, a Hayward opt out and departure lets Boston open up their full Non-Tax Payer Mid-Level Exception, which would be about $9.26 Million.
My preference is a Hayward opt-out and extend on a lower cap hit, but all signs seem to be pointing towards a departure, and perhaps a change of scenery will be best for both parties. If you want to read the tea leaves, there are rumors that Hayward’s oldest daughter is registered for school in Indiana, further indicating that something is amiss.
A lot of this involves piecing together rumors, but when Zach Lowe is mentioning that Hayward is not a lock to be a Celtic next season, the noise starts to mean a lot more. Evan Massey of Hoop Analysis Network reports that “Celtics and Pacers have discussed the framework of a Myles Turner for Gordon Hayward swap”, stating that other pieces would need to be included as well to make a deal work. Elaborating in a later tweet, Massey said the following:
Indiana makes a whole lot of sense as a destination for Gordon Hayward, who was born and bred there in addition to his entire basketball career being based there (including his time at Butler University with Brad Stevens). Victor Oladipo is already implicated in a ton of rumors in Indiana, including some that don’t make him look like a great teammate; clearly disgruntled, Dipo as well as Myles Turner may be looking for a jersey swap.
Both Indiana and Boston could benefit from a trade, which could either be done between the two teams or with another team brought into the fold. For Boston, solidifying their guard rotation as well as maybe grabbing a starting caliber center that fits the timeline of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown should be the goals of the team in addition to fleshing out their bench. Then, in comes Kevin O’Connor with a bomb of a rumor.
The interesting aspect is Boston looking to potentially consolidate picks in order to net a top 10 pick; this is following another report from KOC saying the Hawks are willing to move the 6th overall pick with the Pelicans and Celtics interested, among other teams. Mark Stein reported Atlanta as a potential trade destination for Jrue Holiday as well on November 11th, and that the scenario would include a multi-team trade.
A trade for Holiday and Turner would solidify the team’s starting unit, especially defensively where Jrue excels. A tandem of Smart and Holiday could be arguably the best defensive backcourt in the NBA, and if the Celtics are truly concerned about the health of Kemba Walker, an addition of Holiday would allow another savvy veteran to shoulder his minutes as needed. With Daniel Theis fresh off a knee scope, investing in some youth at the center position would also be wise, considering we have yet to see a full season out of Rob Williams heaped in with the potential departure of Enes Kanter.
There’s also a chance more assets could be coming back from New Orleans in whatever deal they end up doing. The biggest question from Boston’s standpoint would be if Jrue Holiday is a long term piece, as he has a player option worth $26.3 Million in 2021-22 before hitting free agency. Outside of the injury history, Holiday’s contract situation is similar to Gordon Hayward’s just on a 12 month delay, but the benefit of trading for him now is acquiring his Bird Rights. A deal now would make retaining him long-term much easier and would allow Boston to go over the cap to retain him alongside Jayson and Jaylen.
I don’t expect a full overhaul of the roster, but it definitely seems like there is a lot of smoke to these rumors as we approach the draft. Hold onto your butts, things are about to get really interesting as we get into the heart of the offseason.
