Overreacting and Overstating: Tremont Waters
I am a huge Tremont Waters fan, so exploring his potential was something I was looking forward to in this series. Before getting into the per 36 minute, per 100 possessions, and advanced stats, I would like to note that Waters has been playing out of his mind in the G-League as well.
In his 30 games with the Maine Red Claws, averaging 33.9 minutes per game, he is averaging 19.2 points, 7.6 assists, 3.3 rebounds, and 2.2 steals. And that’s not per 36 minutes, that’s every game. He even made the G-League equivalent of the All-Star team, so I think it’s a safe assumption that he could be a pretty solid player for us some day.
But now that I’ve said my peace on that, let’s get into his NBA stats. When I was choosing players to compare him to, I looked for a mix of undersized guards, and really good defensive guards. I mean, the guy’s averaging 2.2 steals in the G-League and won a defensive player of the conference award in college, I think he’s a pretty good defender.
Starting with his points per 36 minutes, Tremont averages the second most out of the bunch I chose, only behind Ty Lawson. In assists, he’s at the bottom of the list, but behind by 0.6 to Lawson and Mario Chalmers. I mean, how many assists do you expect the guy to get in the league when he’s almost never the primary ball handler. Moving on, though, his rebounding numbers are not that bad, especially when you consider that the guy is 5’ 10”/11”. He ranks third in this category, only behind Gary Payton and Eric Bledsoe. (Two guys I’m more than happy to say I’m up there with in a category.)
Before looking at the defensive side of the ball, I want to look at the percentages for Tremont. His field goal percentage is not great, in fact it’s last among all players in this list. The next closest to him is Kirk Hinrich who sits a whole .029 above him. As for three-point percentage, it doesn’t get much better. Waters is shooting 13.3% on the year, which surprisingly isn’t last among these guys. Gary Payton shot just 7.7% from three his rookie year, and they even took a similar amount (Payton shot 13 threes, Waters has shot 15.) I will say, though, when looking at two-point percentage, Waters is well on top. He shoots 61.5% on two-point shots, which is by far the best out of everyone on this list.
Taking a look at the defensive stats per 36 minutes, Waters looks amazing. He averages 2.5 steals and even 1 block a game. I can understand calling the block a fluke because of his lack of playing time, but it’s hard to dispute the steals, as he averages up around that same mark in the G-League, too. And that’s over the course of 30 games or so. His 1 block is the most out of anyone, which is to be expected since we’re talking about point guards here, but what’s really impressive is that his 2.5 steals is the second most out of anyone. The only person ahead of him is “The Glove” Gary Payton (2.6 steals), who is known as one of, if not the, best defensive point guards ever. Waters, despite his height, is a seriously good defender, and I think with Smart’s help he could turn into one of the best defensive guards this league has seen in awhile.
Per usual, I like to take a look at the offensive and defensive ratings that go along with the per 100 possessions stats. As you could infer by his percentages, Waters isn’t the most effective offensive player yet. His offensive rating of 86 is the worst out of everyone, and Bledsoe is the next closest to him at 93. Defensively however, Waters is on top yet again. His defensive rating of 104 tops the list, with Kirk Hinrich one point behind him at 105. Another promising stat showing Tremont’s defensive potential.
Moving on to the advanced stats, let’s look at his usage rate. Oddly enough, Waters’ usage rate is higher than anyone else on this list. That means out of the time everyone spent on the floor during their time, Waters had the most plays run through him. That’s kind of crazy, but it also shows that there could be some faith in Tremont throughout the organization. Anyways, Waters’ value over replacement player is second worst at 0.0, above only Bledsoe, who managed to have a negative impact on his team his rookie year. Unfortunately his offensive win share of -0.1 (second worst above Eric Bledsoe) and defensive win share of 0.1 (worst of everyone) average out to a group worst overall win share of 0.0.
This was another somewhat difficult comparison to make overall. I struggled to find the perfect comparison to make. A big part of me wants to go all in and say that Tremont is the next Gary Payton. Another part of me thinks that I’m crazy. He looks like a solid guy who could contribute as a role player, leading to a Hinrich or Chalmers comparison. If this were a realistic comparison, I’d go with a Mario Chalmers and say that Waters could have the same impact he did with LeBron, Wade, and Bosh, but with Tatum, Walker, Brown, and Hayward. But, this is an overreaction. He’s going to be the next Gary Payton. Full send. Defensive legend Tremont Waters here we come.
Tremont Waters = Gary Payton
