Celtics Sunday Notebook: Tatum’s threes, the Williamses, and three trade deadline options
NESN
Welcome back! Another Sunday, another notebook.
The Boston Celtics went 1-2 in the past week. While it was nice to see them take down the New Orleans Pelicans, that win was completely overshadowed in the following days.
Boston got smashed by the Charlotte Hornets due to their inability to make a shot and then blew an 11-point lead to the Portland Trail Blazers for that same reason. Both losses were bad, but the loss to the Blazers stings a whole lot more.
Portland went on a 20-to-5 run to end the game. Not only that, but the Celtics failed to make a field goal for the final 7:19 of game time. Their only points came on five free throws. It was nothing short of revolting.
Celtics Sunday Notebook
Boston played two of the five worst teams in the NBA in back-to-back games and failed to score more than 105 points in either contest. For reference, the Hornets give up 114.2 points per game this season, and the Blazers allow 112.2.
With the trade deadline not too far away, the Celtics are starting to show their true colors once again. After giving fans some hope by stringing together some wins, they have fallen right back down to earth.
Jayson Tatum’s three-pointers
This has been a topic of debate on Celtics Twitter as of late. At the time of writing this, Jayson Tautm has missed his last 20 threes. He’s shooting 31.1 percent from deep on the season and 24.3 percent in 2022. Tatum’s slump is a major reason the Celtics are struggling.
This has led to a lot of people clamoring for the Celtics to take fewer threes. Specifically, there’s a large movement for Tatum to cut back on his three-point attempts because of how poorly he’s shooting. But that is not a good idea.
Tatum is a good three-point shooter. He is having a bad three-point shooting year. Both statements can be true. To sit there and say that Tatum should stop shooting threes altogether is bogus.
The two-time All-Star even commented on his shooting woes after the game against Portland. He said that, despite his struggles, he remains confident in himself. (Which is a good thing for Celtics fans to hear.)
“Sometimes I watch film and see some things I could adjust. Over the course of 82 games, sometimes you just miss. But you put too much work in to doubt yourself. So, there’s always the next game.”
If Tatum is open for a three, he should take that shot nine times out of ten. That tenth shot is where the problems lie.
In Boston’s loss to Portland, Tatum had a clean look at a three. He beat Jusuf Nurkic off the dribble, had him stumbling, and stepped back for a solid look from behind the arc. But he missed it. Just like he missed the last 19 threes he took before that one.
The issue is, Tatum had a clear drive to the lane. Nurkic was stumbling, and Tatum could have easily kept his dribble and drove around him. Instead, he took a three over Nurkic that didn’t fall.
Robert Williams almost made the play of the century by tipping it in, but that didn’t fall either. The point is, Tatum was already 0-of-5 from deep at that point. Why take a stepback jumper when there’s a clear drive to the lane? Regardless of if the three is open or not.
This is an issue that happens throughout the game, too. Just look at this picture that went mini-viral of a three against the Hornets.
Tatum got a decent look, but Jaylen Brown was wide open in the corner. Tatum was 0-for-5 from deep at that point, too. But he still took the shot. Boston had multiple chances to make a run in that game, but they were thwarted with plays like that.
So yes, both can be true. Tatum should take nine out of the ten open threes he gets. But the two plays shown above are the perfect example of that one exception. And Tatum hasn’t learned to fix that one exception yet.
Boston’s three-point addiction
This is similar to the Tatum talk, so it will be brief.
The Celtics take 36.0 threes per game, which ranks 16th in the NBA. They shoot 33.7 percent on those looks, which ranks 24th in the league. Not great.
Those numbers are (ironically enough) a bit up in January, but the Celtics’ three-point habit has been present nonetheless. In their loss to Charlotte, 16 of their 24 fourth-quarter shots were threes. They only made five of them. Against Portland, 10 of their 17 shots in the fourth were threes. While they did make four of them, it still didn’t matter.
The common argument this season has been that most of them are wide-open, good looks. And that’s true. A lot of the looks Boston has been getting from deep are open. But they’re not going in. That’s a problem.
So, at this point, one of three things needs to happen.
One. The players need to start hitting their shots. Only a select few players on the Celtics’ roster are shooting at or above their career average. (With Tatum being the main culprit shooting below.) If they break out of their slumps, the offense would look a lot better (for the most part).
Two. Ime Udoka needs to adjust and change the offense. If the players aren’t going to play like themselves, then stop having them take so many threes. Draw up some plays that get them going to the basket. Just switch things up.
Three. Brad Stevens needs to add shooting. This team needs shooters like it needs air to breathe. Inserting a couple of shooters into the rotation could do wonders.
The Williamses
If you’re a fan looking to find some sort of bright sport during a dark season, look no further than the Williamses. Robert Williams and Grant Williams have been amazing this year, and they’re two of the only consistent players on this Celtics team.
Robert Williams is playing nearly 30 minutes a night. After three years filled with injuries and absences, it’s a beautiful thing to see him out there playing on a night-to-night basis. And that’s without even talking about the impact he has when he’s on the court.
He changes the way the Celtics play just with his presence. Time Lord is a constant safety valve on both ends of the court.
On offense, he’s always there to catch a lob when needed. And even past that, if the Celtics miss a shot, you know Rob will be in the mix for an offensive rebound. He gives them an automatic second chance whenever he’s in the paint.
On defense, he’s a shot-blocking machine. If a guy gets past the perimeter, they’re going to have an athletic maniac waiting for them in the paint. It’s a great thing to have a consistent presence at the center position.
Then there’s Grant Williams. On a team with no shooting, he’s shot 42.4 percent from behind the arc. He went through a bit of a slump, but just when people thought he was losing his touch, he nailed a side-step three against the Blazers. (That one had me screaming in my char.)
He’s not just hitting corner threes anymore, either. He’s shown the ability to hit from the wing and the top of the key. Grant isn’t as consistent from those spots, but that’s a work in progress. He’s even shot it well off the dribble at times.
Combine that with his amazing defensive presence, and the Celtics have found themselves a gem. He’s always energetic on defense, and while he’s not always quick enough to keep up with some of the speedier point guards (shoutout Anfernee Simons), he’s fairly versatile as well.
The Williamses are making a strong case that they should be starters. And that leads right into the next note.
Al Horford needs to come off the bench
It’s impossible not to love Al Horford. He just seems like the kindest human on the planet, and he’s played some of his best years in Boston. But the time has come.
Horford needs to be coming off the bench for a variety of reasons. First and foremost, though, he just doesn’t have the same shooting tough anymore. Grant Williams is a much better shooter at this point, and in a year where the C’s need as much spacing as possible, he needs to be starting.
Plus, it seems as though Horford has lost a step. He’s still a very smart defender, and he knows how to pick his spots, but there comes a point in every player's career where things start to decline. It’s not anything drastic yet, but those signs are showing.
There’s not much else to say on the matter, except for the fact that it’s tough to pay a bench player north of $25 million. Combine that with the recent rumors that the C’s are looking at trades for Horford, and his days in Beantown may be numbered.
Ime Udoka
“Fire Ime” might as well be trending on every social media platform at this point. It’s absolutely absurd that people still think Udoka is solely to blame for what is going on with the Celtics this season.
Is he going a perfect job? Not even close. Is he the reason they’ve lost some games? Probably! Is he the main reason behind how bad the C’s are this season? Absolutely not.
The Celtics have been a .500 basketball team for two years in a row now. Under two different coaches. But yet both times it’s the coaches fault? How does that make any logical sense?
Tatum is having the worst shooting year of his career, and it’s not even close. Brown seems to fade away in the fourth quarter. Horford is declining. Schroder sometimes likes to pound the ball into the ground for 75 percent of the shot clock (although he’s been great lately). Marcus Smart is as inefficient as ever. This team just isn’t playing well, and it’s not Udoka’s fault.
How is Udoka supposed to force them to make shots? When they missed wide-open look after wide-open look against Charlotte, how was that Udoka’s fault? In the fourth quarter against the Hornets, the Celtics generated 14 open or wide-open threes. They made three of them.
Now, this isn’t to say that Udoka is flawless. He’s been far from it. His rotations are questionable, he’s in love with the three-ball, and he (like Brad Stevens) can sometimes let runs go on for too long without calling a timeout. Udoka has flaws.
But to sit back and think that he’s the sole reason the Celtics are bad is ridiculous. He is a rookie head coach, his team is underperforming, his star player is having the worst shooting season of his life, and the media in Boston grills him at every turn.
Udoka is not the only problem with the Celtics. He’s not the solution right now, and he may be contributing to the problem, but to blame him and only him is extreme.
Marcus Smart conspiracy
Smart caught COVID and has missed six games in a row. But the last two of those six games have been for reconditioning purposes. Usually, players only take one game off for that. This has led to a conspiracy theory running through Celtics Twitter.
The long-time Celtics guard is eligible to be traded on January 25. With him missing so much time, some have begun to theorize that the Celtics are holding him out because they have a trade in place. By not playing him, they avoid the risk of him getting injured or anything affecting that deal.
Now, Smart is listed as probable for Sunday’s game against the Washington Wizards. He’s expected to play, but who knows what could happen. Maybe they just wanted to let him play one more game with the C’s.
In all reality, this theory probably isn’t true. That’s why it’s just a theory. But there’s always a chance. And even if it’s not true, that doesn’t mean Smart won’t be traded by the deadline.
Bol Bol in Boston
Again, this won’t be a very long note, but the Celtics made their first trade of the season! Stevens shipped Juancho Hernangomez off to the San Antonio Spurs (who also got a 2028 protected second from the Denver Nuggets), they sent Bryn Forbes to the Nuggets, and Boston got PJ Dozier and Bol Bol.
Both Dozier and Bol are injured at the moment, though. Dozier will be out for the season, and will then enter unrestricted free agency. And there’s a chance Bol will return this season, but he needs surgery on his foot. Boston has the ability to offer him a qualifying offer for next year.
The main purpose of this trade was to get under the tax (or get closer to doing that), but a lot of fans aren’t happy with that. Some say the Celtics should have traded for Forbes directly. But that segues perfectly into the final note.
Trade deadline check-in
It’s time for a reality check.
The Celtics aren’t winning a championship this season. They aren't making the Eastern Conference Finals. They probably won’t even make the second round of the playoffs. To be quite honest, there’s even a chance they fail to make the playoffs in general, and could even miss the play-in entirely.
Why trade for Forbes? What? Get one year of production and then lose him at the end of the year to the highest bidder? That’s pointless.
Right now, the Celtics have a few options, and it’s becoming increasingly obvious that one of them is the right one.
Option one is that they try to make a splash. They try to pool all of their assets together in order to trade for a star or a long-term piece that can help the team. Some of these flashier names include Domantas Sabonis, Jalen Brunson, and Duncan Robinson. Not all are elite players, but they could each help the C’s in the long term.
That Robinson note is particularly interesting, as the Miami Heat are reportedly open to trading him. Robinson fits into the TPE and is on the books for a while. He’s having a down year shooting-wise, but he’s still shooting around league average. Robinson would be the perfect fit if he could turn things around. Can I interest anyone in a Smart for Robinson swap?
Option two is that they do absolutely nothing. They stand pat at the trade deadline and just roll with what they have for the rest of the season. This is obviously the most boring option, and with how the year’s been going, this probably won’t happen.
And the third and final option, which is also the one that makes the most sense, is to sell. Trade Dennis Schroder. Trade Josh Richardson. Try to dump Horford’s contract. Get Enes Freedom off the team. Maybe even explore the market for Smart. If the player isn’t young or a part of the core three (Tatum, Brown, Robert Williams) then ship him off.
This would give the Celtics a chance to properly assess the assets they have on board. Guys like Romeo Langford, Aaron Nesmith, and Payton Pritchard clearly aren’t going to play with Richardson and Schroder around. But if the season is dead anyways, which is pretty much is, then let the young guys play. At the very least just to know what they have in them.
Give Grant Williams a ton of minutes, let Langford and Nesmith play big-time roles, allow Pritchard to roam free. Heck, while they’re at it, give Sam Hauser some run as well. I mean, he did just help the Maine Celtics break some franchise records for threes.
This would give Stevens the rest of the year to evaluate his young guys and figure out who he wants to keep moving forward, and who can go. Plus, since the TPEs carry over into the offseason, he would still have time to make somewhat of a splash this summer.
Option three is the best way to go, and probably the most realistic option for the Celtics at this point in time.
Look ahead and wrap-up
The Celtics play four games this upcoming week. Here’s a look at their schedule:
Sunday, Jan. 23 @ Washington Wizards - 3:30 p.m.
Tuesday, Jan 25 vs. Sacramento Kings - 7:30 p.m.
Friday, Jan. 28 @ Atlanta Hawks - 7:30 p.m.
Saturday, Jan. 29 @ New Orleans Pelicans - 7:00 p.m.
In theory, all four of those are very winnable games. None of the four teams are above .500, and the majority are well below that mark. But as we’ve learned, it’s impossible to know what version of the Celtics will show up on any given day.
This week wasn’t exactly a fun one. It was filled with sadness, losses, and a whole bunch of three-pointers. Hopefully, Tatum can break out of his slump soon, because then at least the games would be fun to watch.
Congratulations to Robert Williams on the birth of his second child, Hendrix Rome Williams. Glad to see the Celtics gave him all the time he needed, and good luck to him moving forward with that amazing journey.
But yeah. Let’s hope that the weeks leading up to the trade deadline bring some change. Explore the trade market, leave Udoka alone, and let the young guys play. See you next Sunday.
